Water GenbuTier 2
at Store Championship
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.8%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1255
· median 1255
· range 1129–1381
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1006
Q1 1161
Q3 1381
1479
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Exia | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Water Zander | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Diana | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
